NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Kings: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd7f3fa5a05231f2add4f928f98f801cff20b201834a6b9c117639b9cbfaddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 65c | 24,082$15,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,653.48 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 35c | 23,531$8,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,295.42 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,404$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee2e…f422backed Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 933.56$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.69 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 55c | 916.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.11 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 30c | 703.27$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Under | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 426.97$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.41 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd860…aa2cbacked Over | 48c | 423.94$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 54c | 371.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.67 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 333.23$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 53c | 285$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 267.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…6574backed Under | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 52c | 117$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Under | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Under | 54c | 27.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…9739backed Over | 49c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. KingsSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.