NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ccc1689ae13ce835359a4ac13855f1b6bbc515b2aef35bf6ec5099e24835ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Suns | 54c | 5,354$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.79 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Kings | 46c | 4,923$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,264.4 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kings | 46c | 2,398$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.3 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…498abacked Suns | 54c | 1,517$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kings | 44c | 1,480$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.2 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Suns | 54c | 1,439$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.89 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…3de0backed Suns | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 46c | 904.51$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kings | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 54c | 733.83$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 43c | 347.53$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.14 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…4ed5backed Suns | 55c | 332.53$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Suns | 55c | 142.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Suns | 54c | 128.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Kings | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Suns | 54c | 107.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 44c | 94.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Suns | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 45c | 83.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings | 45c | 81.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 45c | 65.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Suns | 55c | 49.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Suns | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Kings | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Suns | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Suns | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Kings | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. KingsSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.