NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb30b35201a915a0f6ff240ad4d4f355761fcb235efd731e613002014aebfa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Suns | 50c | 40,117$20,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,058.45 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kings | 50c | 20,420$10,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,209.61 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Kings | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Kings | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,589.99 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Suns | 50c | 8,157$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,056.86 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kings | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed Suns | 50c | 5,045$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.45 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Kings | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Suns | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kings | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Suns | 49c | 3,358$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.35 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Kings | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.6 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 49c | 2,877$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.77 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Suns | 49c | 2,732$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.27 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Kings | 53c | 1,890$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.7 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Suns | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.65 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Suns | 47c | 1,590$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.56 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Suns | 49c | 1,473$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.14 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Kings | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 47c | 1,063$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Suns | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Suns | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…3de0backed Suns | 49c | 667.31$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 49c | 635.06$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Kings | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Kings | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…1552backed Kings | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 49c | 392.16$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 49c | 350.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.8 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…45c3backed Kings | 51c | 291.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Suns | 50c | 242.68$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Kings | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Suns | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Kings | 49c | 204.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…4505backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Suns | 51c | 197.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Suns | 51c | 167.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Suns | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 48c | 137.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Kings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Suns | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Suns | 50c | 98.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Suns | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Kings | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Suns | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Kings | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Kings | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Suns | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Kings | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Kings | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 48c | 39.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Suns | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Suns | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Kings | 51c | 35.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…957dbacked Kings | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…4368backed Suns | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Suns | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Kings | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Suns | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Suns | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…9739backed Kings | 52c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Suns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Suns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. KingsSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.