Earnings · resolved market
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd8d6c5acc3c2d5b0f04e6cd63c1922dbca1ff89be9edce99f4c7d53be2ac58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5bc…8a38backed No | 7c | 10,783$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 4c | 7,853$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.15 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 13c | 3,934$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.46 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…215ebacked No | 9c | 2,913$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 17c | 2,436$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…336cbacked No | 6c | 2,104$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 3c | 2,057$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…8211backed No | 1c | 1,820$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 5c | 1,222$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 5c | 1,146$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 1,091$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,070$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 4c | 1,042$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 1,040$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 1,033$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…bfdebacked No | 12c | 1,032$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…ad18backed No | 5c | 999.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +309.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…2a28backed No | 8c | 911.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…3695backed No | 5c | 849.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 824.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 4c | 799.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…a87cbacked No | 4c | 793.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 7c | 732.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 17c | 730.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 702.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77dd…fc49backed No | 6c | 644.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.31per pick | 14cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 5c | 599.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 7c | 529.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…04b7backed No | 19c | 527.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 4c | 503.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…1cc2backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…6433backed No | 5c | 467.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…80c8backed No | 5c | 460$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…a1f1backed No | 4c | 443.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 11c | 420$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 5c | 386.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab66…6116backed No | 4c | 358.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked No | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 5c | 301.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 6c | 253.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…07b6backed No | 6c | 242.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…5d31backed No | 9c | 220.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…002dbacked No | 6c | 208.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 207.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…81cabacked No | 11c | 135.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed No | 16c | 128.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…9447backed No | 12c | 127.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 8c | 126.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked No | 11c | 120.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked No | 17c | 119.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7568…27b2backed No | 10c | 115.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 18c | 112.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7573…3f9cbacked No | 24c | 100.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…754cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +335.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf973…2593backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a4b5backed No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbc…76f6backed No | 22c | 82.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 13c | 78.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cc…2833backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.