Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc182c7477db16bf3e76e097765892da16366e5f3f0bf874d205c92c3c453c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 453.08$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.02 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 49c | 293.92$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 266.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 62c | 261.58$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 41c | 204$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 32c | 199.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 177.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 149.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 148.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 38c | 132.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 131.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 128.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 117.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 114.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 109.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 106.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 89.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 85.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 61c | 82.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 82.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 38c | 79.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 76.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 76.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 72.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 65.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 25c | 60.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…2377backed Yes | 37c | 54.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 38c | 51.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 46.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 44.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…e2e1backed No | 58c | 42.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 50c | 38.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 38c | 38.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 40c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 30.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 62c | 23.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked No | 55c | 19.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 18.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 17.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.