Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2435e4a45a5a0753d01b40b662cb51ab08fa22b2372a924bead9f0037c74139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.41 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 1,178$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 30c | 1,059$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.43 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 825.57$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 625.37$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 566.35$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 532$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 406.65$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 298.6$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 246.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 222.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 215.07$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 32c | 195.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 45c | 172.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 165$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 19c | 160.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 153.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 151.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 140.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 128.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 126.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 110.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 107.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 96.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 21c | 95.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 94.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 32c | 91.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 68c | 89.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 80.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 78.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 62c | 73.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 72.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e61…e2bebacked Yes | 38c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 63.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 63.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 59.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 71c | 58.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 58.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 64c | 58.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 71c | 54.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 25c | 53.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 53.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 52.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…2377backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 66c | 51.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 43.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 41.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 25c | 41.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 40.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 39.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 40c | 38.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 69c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 36.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 30c | 36.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 25.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…4568backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 24.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 59c | 22.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 62c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.