WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc3dcbacab7478330c9ceeb6bff441511abeeb9a2073998044b428a5938bf6b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Indiana Fever | 59c | 1,442$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.56 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 1,385$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 45c | 930.12$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.05 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 342.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 334.85$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.17 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +11.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Indiana Fever | 70c | 301.94$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 24c | 276.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Indiana Fever | 73c | 240.84$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…f36ebacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 187.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Storm | 31c | 152.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Storm | 29c | 140.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Indiana Fever | 75c | 93.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Storm | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Seattle Storm | 49c | 71.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 35.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…5985backed Indiana Fever | 62c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…fbafbacked Seattle Storm | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Indiana Fever | 66c | 24.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Indiana Fever | 69c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Indiana Fever | 73c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.