Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd8cc712f84bd2f9260cc3159ed6e4ad80d2781cdcbf07e30f867c8bd0fd2b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d55…6090backed No | 2c | 594$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 40c | 536.24$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.16 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 306.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 172.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 153$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 55c | 118.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 68c | 118.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 116.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 106$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 89.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 85.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 75.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 72.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 66.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 63.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 60.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 56.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 73c | 49.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 48.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 46.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 46.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 42.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 43c | 37.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 51c | 35.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 35.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 33.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 42c | 30.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 45c | 29.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 71c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 25.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 57c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…f872backed Yes | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 65c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 60c | 22.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 70c | 21.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 67c | 20.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 59c | 20.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 20.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 20.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 59c | 18.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 67c | 16.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.