Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcced2cda80a7434df7b54904fe6047766822060d4873bb9742beac2ee8b0c46f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 4c | 1,397$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 7c | 1,094$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 359.97$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 340$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 72c | 335.02$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 27c | 324.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 274.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 217.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 6c | 204.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 189.51$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 162$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 159.39$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 15c | 150.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 140.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 140.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 124.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 23c | 100.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 21c | 94.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 90.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 86.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…d0d9backed Yes | 39c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 79.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 70.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…7c45backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 69.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 73c | 69.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 65.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 65.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 66c | 60.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 53.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 48.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 30c | 44.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 60c | 39.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 41c | 35.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 31.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 75c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 71c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 65c | 23.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 74c | 17.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.