Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86711b90b22ade4936d475ffff1db6c9e87d5beb77aac2eeabf8b0c570ea496d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 34c | 532.6$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.49 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 243.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 168.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 147.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 130.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 129.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 129$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…7c45backed Yes | 33c | 114$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 26c | 105.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 105.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 102$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 74c | 100.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 33c | 91.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 74.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 66.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 68c | 62.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 33c | 59.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 58.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 50.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 49.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 45.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 32c | 34.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 32.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 79c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.