Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d0d33c5e4c7ea62b23f1d1d0ec7112a7bbf9ca8efd9ead4e3cac37dc90d713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 36c | 3,898$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.51 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 29c | 2,337$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.49 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 451.93$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 66c | 443.46$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.88 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 416$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.04 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 3c | 361.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 332.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 308.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 295.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 41c | 274$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.82 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 39c | 265.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked No | 17c | 261.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 220.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 38c | 199.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.36 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 194.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 162$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 26c | 159.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 156$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 46c | 153.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 54c | 144.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 136.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 35c | 134.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 41c | 121.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 56c | 119.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 116.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…7c45backed Yes | 54c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 105.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 105.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 103$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 55c | 102.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 38c | 94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 92.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 85.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 81.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 80.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 79.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 47c | 71.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 45c | 69.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 28c | 69.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 68.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 64.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 64.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 62.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 79c | 60.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 69c | 60.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…9617backed No | 61c | 59.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 18c | 57.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 61c | 56.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 56.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes | 37c | 52.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 37c | 51.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed Yes | 37c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 35c | 49.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 48.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 37c | 48.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 37c | 47.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 37c | 46.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed Yes | 37c | 46.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 45c | 46.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 44.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 41c | 43.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…cda7backed Yes | 56c | 43.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…0ab6backed No | 70c | 42.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 62c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 54c | 32.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…cf94backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…da27backed No | 58c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 35c | 31.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 30.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 34c | 29.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 37c | 27.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed No | 62c | 27.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 26.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 26.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 74c | 26.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 44c | 26.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…79bcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.