Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd34fd6cb04817193fd9cda4f82d9bff698daf7d852dba2d4c020c57caeff6e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Berrettini, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa213…6907backed Cerundolo | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Berrettini | 34c | 640.26$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.2 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cerundolo | 53c | 458$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.54 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Berrettini | 38c | 450$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cerundolo | 50c | 407.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Berrettini | 20c | 369.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.66 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…1feebacked Cerundolo | 77c | 353.47$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 293.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Berrettini | 20c | 259.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Cerundolo | 80c | 251.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Cerundolo | 80c | 235.96$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.47 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Berrettini | 20c | 234.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.77 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cerundolo | 66c | 222.43$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Cerundolo | 22c | 193.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Berrettini | 79c | 190.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 394 | 69%272 W · 122 L | +27.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Berrettini | 20c | 180.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Berrettini | 41c | 175.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Berrettini | 21c | 172.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Berrettini | 21c | 170.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Berrettini | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…640fbacked Cerundolo | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Berrettini | 20c | 99.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Berrettini | 22c | 91.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Berrettini | 28c | 88.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Cerundolo | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Cerundolo | 79c | 83.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Cerundolo | 71c | 69.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Berrettini | 29c | 69.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cerundolo | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Berrettini | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Cerundolo | 80c | 47.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Berrettini | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe465…7f38backed Berrettini | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…d272backed Cerundolo | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Cerundolo | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo BerrettiniMatteo Berrettini won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs BerrettiniBerrettini won
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Berrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.