Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Berrettini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7610bbcdcb7d1865daba413d3b5cd90290a6f1c4a70472ff1ad6fd5692b046f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Cerundolo, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fa0…be6dbacked Cerundolo | 18c | 3,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…7da1backed Cerundolo | 45c | 1,710$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +199.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Berrettini | 59c | 1,671$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.37 | 348 | 57.2%199 W · 149 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…b3c7backed Cerundolo | 45c | 1,118$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -8.0wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -73%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Berrettini | 55c | 1,111$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.95 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Berrettini | 65c | 822.66$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.26 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo | 41c | 798.24$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.28 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo | 40c | 592.73$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Berrettini | 56c | 520.19$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.08 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Berrettini | 55c | 473.75$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.19 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Cerundolo | 45c | 366.67$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8613backed Berrettini | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Berrettini | 58c | 330.34$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Cerundolo | 46c | 289.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Cerundolo | 46c | 287.74$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Berrettini | 58c | 228.63$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Cerundolo | 45c | 225.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Berrettini | 55c | 203.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d8c4backed Cerundolo | 19c | 200.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 139 | 28.1%39 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Berrettini | 57c | 173.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…ad68backed Cerundolo | 46c | 122.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Cerundolo | 45c | 115.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Cerundolo | 46c | 105.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Berrettini | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Berrettini | 55c | 86.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Cerundolo | 43c | 77.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…4575backed Berrettini | 57c | 66.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Berrettini | 61c | 64.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Cerundolo | 39c | 64.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cerundolo | 52c | 62.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Cerundolo | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Cerundolo | 45c | 55.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Berrettini | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 143 | 60.1%86 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Berrettini | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Cerundolo | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Berrettini | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Berrettini | 56c | 34.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Berrettini | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Berrettini | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Berrettini | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…a3b6backed Berrettini | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Berrettinithis page
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo BerrettiniMatteo Berrettini won
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Berrettini won
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5)Berrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.