CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3f1eb0d60939ed0ac3116f88ddfdeafa94450fb8267516f1ef818db112866e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid | 53c | 3,257$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.1 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Liquid | 53c | 2,890$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.49 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liquid | 55c | 2,588$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.73 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Spirit | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.06 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Liquid | 54c | 1,587$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.74 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit | 46c | 1,156$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.94 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dd8abacked Spirit | 46c | 953.81$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Spirit | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 752 | 45.5%342 W · 410 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…280ebacked Spirit | 47c | 617$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.01 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Liquid | 54c | 472.22$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…f778backed Spirit | 47c | 391.78$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.64 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Spirit | 48c | 365.25$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.3 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Spirit | 47c | 340$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…dbd2backed Liquid | 54c | 270.67$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed Spirit | 47c | 242.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…5a83backed Spirit | 47c | 238.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spirit | 48c | 208.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Spirit | 47c | 162.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Liquid | 56c | 123.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…a265backed Liquid | 54c | 118.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 189 | 43.9%83 W · 106 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Liquid | 56c | 102.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed Liquid | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…1ab8backed Liquid | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Spirit | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…719dbacked Liquid | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Liquid | 56c | 49.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 241 | 52.3%126 W · 115 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Spirit | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 499 | 47.5%237 W · 262 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Spirit | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Liquid | 56c | 31.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…bd22backed Spirit | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Spirit | 48c | 22.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.