Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd7641d2f0a6bf8c9269a48d03fb8b8fcc87692a2b56d66e8c74169781be50e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 2,705$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked No | 75c | 1,192$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.95 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 473.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 345.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 220.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 184$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 133.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 132.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 111.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 97.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 24c | 79.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 64.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 20c | 61.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 50.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…bc14backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 65c | 45.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 44.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 36.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 80c | 31.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 26.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 72c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 76c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 78c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.