Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893a652820ac783b0ec7ef372fa1f346d191d3deaa8a8c126e12b4e634f36c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 36c | 912.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.19 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 327.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 290.31$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 277.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.77 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 275.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 244$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 167.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 37c | 126.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 125.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 39c | 118.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 38c | 115$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 33c | 109.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…6754backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 100.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d6…f5fdbacked Yes | 38c | 99.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 95.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 29c | 93.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 63c | 79.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 76.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 74.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 28c | 73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 53c | 71.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 36c | 71.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 68.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 67.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 66.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 68c | 62.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 58.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 57.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 55.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 49.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 57c | 41.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 39.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 56c | 39.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 39.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 39.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 37.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 58c | 37.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 36.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 35.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 35.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 33.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 31.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 71c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 59c | 18.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.