Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd7e08ba45c67d870387bc80375e863d9cc8fb1dc071a2a0af53fa5ef1522d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ff…62b6backed Yes | 0c | 10,081$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,625$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,430$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 78c | 652.5$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 637.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 541.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 534.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 10c | 412.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 400.91$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 9c | 353.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 18c | 325.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 33c | 309.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 274.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 240.04$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 223.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 41c | 205.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 18c | 203.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 56c | 179.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 175.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 55c | 159.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 147.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 138.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 138$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 129.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 122.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 19c | 119.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 108.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 12c | 102.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…158ebacked Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 86.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 65c | 66.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 45c | 66.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 23c | 65.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 60.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…1a5cbacked Yes | 35c | 60.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…676ebacked Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…60fcbacked No | 76c | 57.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 42c | 56.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 21c | 54.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 41c | 47.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 23c | 44.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 41.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 36.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 34.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…8998backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…1981backed No | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.