Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf767d6026698b2189cd4b34a6362923584c0d241ae947fb9fcd4b9f709cd2714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,991 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 1c | 4,149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 3,721$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…28d0backed No | 0c | 2,093$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 3c | 1,865$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked No | 8c | 1,528$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked No | 24c | 875.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.57 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 38c | 828.58$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.58 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…3fc6backed No | 5c | 710$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…ce85backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 34c | 479.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.76 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 59c | 445.17$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.45 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…2c66backed No | 23c | 413.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 49c | 406.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.77 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 405.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 51c | 392.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.3 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 376.95$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 56c | 368.54$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…2fecbacked No | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 55c | 328.34$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.62 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 43c | 323.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 6c | 302.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb0…7dbebacked Yes | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +214%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 50c | 292.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 25c | 286.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.26 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 40c | 274.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 259.46$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 253.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 241.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed No | 74c | 237.12$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 46c | 204$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…9796backed No | 69c | 199.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…62b6backed Yes | 41c | 196.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked No | 32c | 184.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 13c | 166.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.3 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 40c | 164.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed No | 7c | 159.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 35c | 158.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 22c | 147.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 78c | 128.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 120.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 47c | 108.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 44c | 105.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 19c | 104.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 73c | 104.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 38c | 104.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 100.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…88dbbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 50c | 94.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb363…30e0backed No | 57c | 94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked No | 73c | 91.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 44c | 90.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 41c | 89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Yes | 57c | 87.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 58c | 83.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 80.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked No | 50c | 75.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 69c | 73.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 60c | 70.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 42c | 69.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 69.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 66.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Yes | 46c | 64.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…1a5cbacked Yes | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d6…1411backed No | 18c | 60.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…fbb4backed Yes | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…8998backed Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 63c | 57.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 50c | 56.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 60c | 55.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 55.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 49c | 54.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 33c | 52.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 24c | 48.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 48.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…4d8cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8139…d513backed Yes | 46c | 43.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 43.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 40c | 40.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 52c | 38.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…2917backed Yes | 49c | 34.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f5…87adbacked Yes | 35c | 34.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…1708backed Yes | 53c | 33.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 32.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…13f1backed No | 55c | 32.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 31.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.