Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabbb14374e67df02e6d214dfd336e7c44f4cc8f978a3d4f217a893647606fab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,417 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e43…5d75backed Yes | 1c | 4,392$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…28d0backed Yes | 0c | 4,290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,019$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 41c | 958.29$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 11c | 710.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 4c | 599.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 573.75$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 59c | 571.01$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.94 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 425.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 40c | 405.04$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.16 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 405$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed No | 55c | 381.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.54 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 4c | 376.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 25c | 367.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 63c | 345.72$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.45 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 19c | 313.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 29c | 275$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 16c | 248.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…fa27backed Yes | 5c | 247.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 26c | 236.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 37c | 221.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…1708backed Yes | 33c | 212.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 28c | 204$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 190.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…89a3backed Yes | 13c | 174.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 23c | 172.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…c8c4backed Yes | 25c | 172.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 60c | 166.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 164.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 14c | 144.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 118.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 17c | 100.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 92.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…06a1backed Yes | 15c | 89.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 41c | 88.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 12c | 88.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 30c | 87.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 84.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…14f5backed Yes | 13c | 83.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…88dbbacked Yes | 18c | 81.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…8eb8backed Yes | 43c | 79.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 25c | 78.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 53c | 71.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 68.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 37c | 64.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed No | 79c | 63.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…c3b4backed Yes | 24c | 60.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…9796backed Yes | 38c | 60.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 36c | 55.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f5…87adbacked Yes | 25c | 55.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…f5b0backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb0…7dbebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +214%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 21c | 49.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 58c | 41.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked No | 75c | 41.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 49c | 40.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b7…766abacked Yes | 51c | 39.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…23ecbacked Yes | 34c | 34.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 73c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 60c | 33.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8139…d513backed Yes | 49c | 32.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 49c | 28.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8384…7d41backed Yes | 39c | 27.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 55c | 22.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 66c | 19.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…5039backed No | 67c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…17b5backed Yes | 68c | 19.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.