South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Atlante FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc021c2450fe97b3807ccf23147b842866ad41cb62bc36d963d58c04fb1aacf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 45c | 3,244$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.54 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 52c | 2,336$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.37 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 76c | 1,623$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.47 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,524$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.33 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 1,135$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.39 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 971.33$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.66 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 890.74$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 69c | 624.52$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 38c | 493.08$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…533fbacked No | 78c | 418.44$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 396.5$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.29 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 36c | 378.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 79c | 247.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 21c | 181.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295a…2ff2backed Yes | 21c | 170$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 139.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 123$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Yes | 21c | 123$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Yes | 42c | 115.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 37c | 115$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 114$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 43c | 111.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 27c | 76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 31c | 76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 66c | 68.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…72f2backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 59c | 43.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 63c | 29.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 62c | 28.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc6…fb63backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…fbbabacked Yes | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlante FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlante FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.