South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1957543fb3177a13472af57d9f7453cefe582fb337f1a749692378d439a577ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 41c | 10,967$4,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,526.29 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 62c | 6,313$3,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.37 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed No | 50c | 3,560$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.88 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 1,433$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.79 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 39c | 1,336$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.03 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 34c | 1,226$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 57c | 1,028$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.79 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 61c | 819$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 33c | 709.81$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.27 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 63c | 650.31$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.35 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed No | 35c | 473.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.6 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 469.8$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 71c | 463.17$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Yes | 29c | 371$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 60c | 328$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…178ebacked No | 38c | 309.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.95 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 70c | 215.07$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 22c | 207.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 58c | 205.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 41c | 203.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Yes | 51c | 176.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 35c | 168$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 66c | 160.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 15c | 159.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Yes | 37c | 144.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed No | 62c | 139.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed No | 35c | 121.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 38c | 111.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…8663backed Yes | 61c | 103.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 46c | 100.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 62c | 99.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 31c | 97.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Yes | 44c | 96.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 61c | 95.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 66c | 95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 33c | 71.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 53c | 64.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 44c | 57.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 62c | 56.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 38c | 53.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed No | 51c | 52.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 48c | 52.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed No | 44c | 51.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 63c | 45.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Yes | 36c | 41.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 45c | 34.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 52c | 34.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…1822backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…a0babacked Yes | 64c | 26.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a11…6c3ebacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…8cd9backed No | 67c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…0d62backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 63c | 21.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…9591backed Yes | 67c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…c7a1backed Yes | 62c | 19.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 58c | 18.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Atlante FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Atlante FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.