Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd1a2b9c96fa7709d050a11d20bbf96e381d8196d50932a037edd208b5c335c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 3,380$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 29c | 1,717$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 1,555$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.6 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 1,396$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.02 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 25c | 1,249$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 29c | 649.39$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.32 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 28c | 564.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…9d1fbacked Over | 29c | 400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 29c | 310$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 305.3$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…0f14backed Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 10c | 158.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 22c | 143.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 25c | 132.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 30c | 120.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Over | 29c | 100.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 27c | 63.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…bce6backed Under | 71c | 55.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…d821backed Under | 72c | 53.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Under | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.