Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ecc2c8765faa083ec7252755c545fa44a4c99079b91742ebce8a21c9e76307a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 5,316$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf439…bf9cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.68 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Yes | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Yes | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed No | 45c | 397.78$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…e904backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 59c | 345.13$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 55c | 344.51$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.38 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 55c | 344.19$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 328.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.18 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 45c | 297.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.7 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 272.87$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 44c | 240.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 52c | 232$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Yes | 46c | 188.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 56c | 182.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…dd27backed Yes | 57c | 175.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 40c | 153.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 68c | 143.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 54c | 123.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked No | 52c | 116$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 42c | 107.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 58c | 103.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 57c | 96.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes | 44c | 95.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Yes | 56c | 83.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 53c | 83.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 47c | 70.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…7d52backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 53c | 62.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 55c | 49.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 42c | 47.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…31e9backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…73ebbacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 60c | 41.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 67c | 37.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 56c | 35.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 42c | 31.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…aef4backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…2bf7backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Yes | 70c | 23.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 54c | 18.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.