TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c18,530$8,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,409.673,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over54c7,500$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,05016045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over51c2,502$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.573966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over77c1,988$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.7612861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over79c1,850$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Over56c1,782$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.416550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c859.05$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.742,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under46c745.38$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.833268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bc3…0b17backed Over73c684.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c1a…40b4backed Over35c599.67$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under23c573.75$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.211,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x649a…02afbacked Over73c525$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3844785.1%40 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over71c450.67$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32014260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over50c383$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.513142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over55c374.95$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.292236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b0…1846backed Over76c328.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502487.5%21 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdad0…8d6dbacked Under26c327.64$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+174.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over57c317.19$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3816046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Over74c300$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22230%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75e1…1b07backed Over73c273.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002556%14 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under23c206.87$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2949647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1169062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Over55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Over57c198.05$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.896227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over76c197.37$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under24c182.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.934144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd318…43d0backed Over74c167.91$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under25c167.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6981732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9d…41f9backed Over74c159.76$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Over71c150$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.55860.3%35 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over70c144.04$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8311065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0082…e801backed Over70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Over76c131.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a3c…84c5backed Over76c131.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52c…2371backed Over76c119.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over66c116.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7725352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under32c101.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8121540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1edf…2392backed Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533240.6%13 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Over64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Over65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over59c99.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4638151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over63c95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b9…8714backed Over68c94.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.852166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Over57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under36c85.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2430647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x07b0…4758backed Over55c72.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over54c71.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.886936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under28c71.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.421315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97b2…1c44backed Over59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.955655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over75c66.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Over49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b2…5f43backed Over18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over50c59.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.295354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df7…29c5backed Over72c57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.041070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5638055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Over56c54.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.683342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over55c54.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433d…f9e8backed Over55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c53.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.331,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over72c52.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over60c51.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed Over74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376583.1%54 W · 11 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4760…33f4backed Over71c42.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under29c41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.179742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0df…40fabacked Over55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over76c39.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over76c39.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…c4b2backed Over74c39.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over39c38.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155547.3%26 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under48c37.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5620153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd6…a082backed Over65c32.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211464.3%9 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over76c31.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1918353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Over70c31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ec…86fbbacked Over73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over73c26.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.531,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under57c24.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6412064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over74c23.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1721051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5501…e914backed Over56c21.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Over74c20.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.296861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+51.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Over74c15.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6211281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed Over71c14.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.075364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.