Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce52cd70dc116d1a702304b684817f42bc11cc3b81156023b455bfd5a86a30cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,796 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 9,400$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…a395backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…f7cdbacked Yes | 2c | 968.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 538.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 531.6$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 63c | 474.42$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.45 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 427.33$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 42c | 350.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 46c | 282.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 25c | 256.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 253.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 48c | 248.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 15c | 248.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 248.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 238.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 36c | 230$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 59c | 207.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 201.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 12c | 192.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 36c | 189.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 41c | 177.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…913ebacked Yes | 28c | 175.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 172.59$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 165.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 40c | 160.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 150.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 40c | 141.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 129.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 11c | 122.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 107.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 30c | 105.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 41c | 105.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 94.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 35c | 94.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 64c | 86.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 62c | 82.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 61c | 82.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 47c | 77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 66c | 76.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 66c | 75.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 56c | 70.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 66.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 65.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 40c | 63.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 48c | 62.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 62.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 53c | 58.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 65c | 54.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 51c | 53.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 52.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 47c | 51.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 65c | 51.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…547ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…a95cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 51c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 58c | 47.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…dabfbacked No | 64c | 47.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 50c | 46.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 66c | 45.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 45.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 44.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 34c | 43.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 40.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 42c | 39.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…978dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 65c | 38.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 43c | 37.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 36.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 39c | 36.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 43c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked No | 63c | 34.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 38c | 34.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…1b20backed Yes | 39c | 33.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 64c | 31.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 47c | 30.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 65c | 29.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 54c | 28.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…0987backed Yes | 36c | 28.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 26.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 25.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 65c | 25.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 64c | 25.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.