Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48319f467c433ae31d7254159e3e06b0f7ecb336c9a6dad0ef616f97e6f51f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,884 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 5c | 5,065$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…a395backed No | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 61c | 659.22$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.55 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 37c | 587.29$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 506.13$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 4c | 497.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 476.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 79c | 450.84$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.4 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 53c | 448.88$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.07 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 28c | 382.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 44c | 349.64$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.48 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 332.57$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 276.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 74c | 240.16$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.23 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 239.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 20c | 211.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 53c | 189.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 23c | 187.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 42c | 172.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 170.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 74c | 159.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 159.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 44c | 154.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 56c | 148.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 136.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 125.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 47c | 110.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 110.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 68c | 110.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 109.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 106.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 105.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 43c | 104.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…a973backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed Yes | 51c | 96.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 63c | 83.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 41c | 83.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 45c | 80.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 79.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 66c | 75.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 59c | 75.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 46c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 55c | 74.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 73.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 46c | 67.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…4237backed No | 67c | 60.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 60.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…0987backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 43c | 54.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 46c | 54.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 51.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed Yes | 41c | 50.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed No | 59c | 47.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 63c | 47.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 45c | 46.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 47c | 45.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 46c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…a6d9backed Yes | 47c | 42.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 26c | 39.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 36.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 35.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 34.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 29.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 64c | 28.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…89b1backed Yes | 40c | 28.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 55c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 56c | 25.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 59c | 25.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked No | 63c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…bce9backed No | 78c | 20.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 78c | 20.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 78c | 20.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1d0ebacked No | 57c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked Yes | 65c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 68c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.