CS2 · resolved market
EWC Cs2: Spirit vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce6501fb62777b7ae6f87aac3f965203820f442dacac540ae6ab4aee9dfcde85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HEROICof Spirit, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed HEROIC | 10c | 5,849$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,252.19 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed HEROIC | 8c | 5,265$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,843.98 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed HEROIC | 9c | 4,406$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.11 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed HEROIC | 44c | 2,325$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.71 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Spirit | 50c | 2,222$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked HEROIC | 8c | 1,851$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.86 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed HEROIC | 14c | 1,152$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.21 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HEROIC | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.11 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked HEROIC | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…5e4ebacked HEROIC | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed HEROIC | 10c | 973.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.92 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed HEROIC | 29c | 700$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Spirit | 2c | 695.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HEROIC | 10c | 667.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.46 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Spirit | 9c | 630.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Spirit | 31c | 601.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.14 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed HEROIC | 9c | 600$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Spirit | 39c | 593.01$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.63 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed HEROIC | 12c | 580.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.27 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…389fbacked HEROIC | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed HEROIC | 27c | 528$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.27 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed HEROIC | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked HEROIC | 13c | 451.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.26 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Spirit | 72c | 433.14$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.86 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…f594backed Spirit | 5c | 417.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed HEROIC | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed HEROIC | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.99 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed HEROIC | 15c | 295.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.35 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked HEROIC | 30c | 290.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.1 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed HEROIC | 11c | 244.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.81 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed HEROIC | 9c | 187.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Spirit | 79c | 182.11$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Spirit | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed HEROIC | 15c | 151.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…f7f0backed HEROIC | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Spirit | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 377 | 52%196 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked HEROIC | 36c | 123.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 11c | 111$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…50e2backed HEROIC | 68c | 100.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…db1bbacked HEROIC | 50c | 100.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked HEROIC | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Spirit | 14c | 93.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…d8b7backed HEROIC | 53c | 90.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Spirit | 74c | 85.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4b…aba8backed HEROIC | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked HEROIC | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Spirit | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…f13abacked Spirit | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.