Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce885c0ccadd2c87e079f113e401f00f66e03abfdbde2ae966ddc81e30993a7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 22c | 238.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 236.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 199.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 70c | 173.64$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 38c | 140.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 116.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 111.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 100.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 99.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 97.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 68c | 91.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Yes | 64c | 87.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 38c | 84.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 72.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 22c | 66.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 63.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 50.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 35c | 49.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 38c | 48.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 47.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 47.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 33c | 38.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b68…140cbacked Yes | 55c | 33.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…ef6fbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 67c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…1d52backed Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 63c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 62c | 20.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.