Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcebe1ed8c34d44f080c6f96e95569a978b0bd51d826a07e0de36c47c469aac27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 39c | 4,366$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.54 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 3,865$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.61 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 3,784$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.68 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 53c | 3,744$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.27 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Yes | 49c | 3,264$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 30c | 2,580$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.4 | 292 | 53.4%156 W · 136 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 51c | 2,568$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.16 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 48c | 2,010$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.74 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 67c | 1,538$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.38 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 54c | 1,404$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 39c | 840$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 65c | 835$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 62c | 827.03$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.46 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…89acbacked Yes | 77c | 617.82$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 40c | 575.12$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9005…d988backed Yes | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 27c | 358.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 37c | 327.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…615cbacked No | 73c | 157.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed No | 52c | 145.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 28c | 137$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…ba78backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 291 | 58.4%170 W · 121 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 75c | 127.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 48c | 70.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 39c | 64.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…b69abacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…2d58backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 38c | 44.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664f…438abacked Yes | 80c | 38.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 37c | 32.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…19d8backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…cf40backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 54c | 18.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…8d20backed Yes | 62c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…99c8backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-07?No won
- Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.