Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee1f96139f369b449a4ff573656dfaff127956d6fbadffe45f80de142b95cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 19c | 427.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed Yes | 80c | 235.84$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 79c | 210.4$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 21c | 186.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 183.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 181.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 15c | 179$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 23c | 131.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 35c | 119.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 91.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 22c | 89.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 78c | 83.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 33c | 69.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 68.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 60c | 61.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 64c | 61.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked No | 25c | 60.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 76c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 72c | 52.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 20c | 50.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 70c | 48.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 65c | 46.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 29.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 78c | 26.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…7cccbacked Yes | 80c | 13.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.