Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf40bedcca7119b8f8e0d498c77d3e44843cd303e38eb7a4cc171df35e1c4d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 80c | 1,276$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.31 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 645.35$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 404.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 379.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 366.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 307.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 6c | 275.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 232.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 38c | 232.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 191.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 15c | 185.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 48c | 174.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 169.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 106.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 16c | 93.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…276fbacked Yes | 22c | 89.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 86.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 20c | 83.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 28c | 70.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 67.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 64c | 65.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 16c | 65.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 65.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 41c | 57.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd090…3bc5backed Yes | 40c | 49.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 70c | 32.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 59c | 32.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 32.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 32c | 31.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 28.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 49c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed No | 76c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 41c | 24.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.