Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ecf973c338af20149b3861b32b98093afc36bd701f3c2efd83c37344aea7732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 3c | 1,670$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.92 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 505.6$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 463.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 68c | 403.43$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.34 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 343.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 297.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.21 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 263.92$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.89 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 240.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.09 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 204.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 184.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 175.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 168.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 154.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 145.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…b974backed No | 12c | 139.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 34c | 133.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 129.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 129.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 42c | 125.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 124$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 123.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 14c | 118.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 56c | 105.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 35c | 100.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 35c | 99.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 54c | 98.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 98.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 36c | 94.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 91.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 89.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 60c | 87.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 83.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 82.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 81.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 73c | 81.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 30c | 78.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 77.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 40c | 75.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 70c | 75.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 25c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 65c | 68.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 68.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 67.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf814…5f09backed No | 38c | 63.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 64c | 62.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 60.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 57.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 27c | 56.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 56.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…1006backed Yes | 79c | 55.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 39c | 51.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 34c | 50.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 38c | 48.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 47.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd090…3bc5backed Yes | 49c | 41.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 68c | 38.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 29c | 37.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 41c | 37.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 64c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 35.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 34.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 33.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 32.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…9a04backed Yes | 47c | 31.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 33c | 30.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 60c | 28.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 49c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 63c | 28.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…de58backed Yes | 40c | 27.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 67c | 27.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 72c | 25.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 22.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 22.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 79c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 69c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.