Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52fcc7472a5f9f56a6f8d3b5cacbad2cfa7f17a518de0ad37f681a6d62b3a40b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 505.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.52 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 505.61$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 428.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 378.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 356$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 344.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 335.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 24c | 309.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 40c | 268.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 261.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 241.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 228.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 200.09$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 170.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 165.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 35c | 156.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 65c | 153.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 136.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 36c | 130.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 129$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 117.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 44c | 108.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed No | 66c | 107.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 66c | 105.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 101.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 39c | 100.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 97.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 87.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 53c | 75.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 73.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 64c | 70.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 67.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 49c | 66.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 64.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 63.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 57c | 62.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…2406backed No | 67c | 60.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 36c | 58.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 61c | 53.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 39c | 51.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 51.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 48.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 24c | 47.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 42.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 35c | 41.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 41c | 39.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 65c | 38.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 72c | 37.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 51c | 37.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 42c | 36.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 56c | 34.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 35c | 34.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 32.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 59c | 25.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 64c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 65c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 48c | 21.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 62c | 21.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 55c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…16dcbacked No | 76c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…cf5bbacked No | 72c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.