TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,830
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,830 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians62c1,227$758 inWon+$468.1411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees39c792.59$309 inLost-$309.112,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians63c531.88$335 inWon+$197.384,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees38c394.74$150 inLost-$15029344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees37c366.7$136 inLost-$135.688,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed New York Yankees39c340$133 inLost-$132.689053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians61c301.71$184 inWon+$117.762,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians62c177.63$110 inWon+$67.54,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees38c172.3$66 inLost-$66.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed New York Yankees38c134.01$52 inLost-$51.525947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians63c132.92$84 inWon+$49.186,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians65c102.7$67 inWon+$35.652,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees38c99$38 inLost-$37.622,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees34c83.4$29 inLost-$28.663,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Yankees38c82.41$31 inLost-$31.311,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe521…880ebacked New York Yankees38c26.97$10 inLost-$10.255867.2%39 W · 19 L+10.3wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+41.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians72c20$14 inWon+$5.65,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians76c19.82$15 inWon+$4.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Cleveland Guardians62c17$11 inWon+$6.4614057.9%81 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc38…bd83backed Cleveland Guardians63c16$10 inWon+$5.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.