MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc1c897989009af4fb8209c54e4f960d66bf40186741d67cb1fd9b638be218ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Cleveland Guardians | 24c | 2,092$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.81 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 75c | 1,947$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.94 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 1,502$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 1,383$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.49 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 1,147$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 68c | 1,060$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.74 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 65c | 870.85$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.9 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 782.48$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.29 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 59c | 758.83$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 682.45$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.14 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 61c | 642.77$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.01 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Yankees | 60c | 504.9$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.73 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 361.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 360.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.74 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 311.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.69 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Yankees | 78c | 252.56$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 240$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 217.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.21 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 212.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 173.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 154.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Cleveland Guardians | 24c | 130.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 129$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 126.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 123.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 118.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 102.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 101$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 61c | 83.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 82.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 70.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 78c | 69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 58.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked New York Yankees | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 53c | 47.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Yankees | 77c | 47.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed New York Yankees | 54c | 45.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 43.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 36.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 36.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed New York Yankees | 78c | 28.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 67c | 26.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed New York Yankees | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…2adbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed New York Yankees | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.