MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1c57f6ffb619ad8bc2539933be014172179beb95c297ce57fa61cc99cf9971f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc126…60aebacked Yes | 48c | 1,046$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed No | 55c | 591.31$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked No | 59c | 439.48$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.19 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 37c | 366.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 44c | 348.31$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.26 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked No | 68c | 264.52$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 52c | 240.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 26c | 238$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 55c | 180.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked No | 75c | 167.05$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 75c | 146$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 145.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 53c | 140.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 75c | 107.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 19c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed No | 71c | 88.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…7275backed No | 54c | 79.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Yes | 45c | 78.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 24c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 27c | 73.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 44c | 51.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 56c | 44.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…5acabacked No | 55c | 25.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.