World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6490562bcd2b5e5936b5fd51f7a3134f09d0f3f5c2ee6f0f0f39b651a2ee65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 3c | 4,908$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,812$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 8c | 799.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 3c | 366.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 293.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 290.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 249$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 226.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 199.97$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 125.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 124.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 23c | 120.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 103.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 96.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Yes | 24c | 80.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 80.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 79.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 19c | 77.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 64.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 19c | 55.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 54.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 53.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 53.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 50.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 46.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 44.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 25c | 43.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 40.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…cf5bbacked No | 75c | 36.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 29.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 18.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…aaa8backed No | 75c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.