World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb164d41674c361fc41db8b6185455465c54363daa95fcfcad3889f82b6ccd23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 68c | 1,005$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 44c | 870.24$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 738$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 659.3$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.29 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 633.28$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.83 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 17c | 605.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 568.15$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.58 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 568$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.26 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 435.58$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 400.59$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.96 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 50c | 356.55$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 58c | 342.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 301.76$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 261.82$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 11c | 255.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 52c | 244.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 234.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 54c | 233$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 232.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 211.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 194.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 191.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 41c | 185.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 23c | 185.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 154.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 153.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 153.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 52c | 152.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 152.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 34c | 149.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 58c | 142.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 79c | 134.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 50c | 132.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 122.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 112.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 112.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 49c | 108.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 107.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 105.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 78c | 102.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 97.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 97.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 17c | 97.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 12c | 97.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 49c | 96.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 43c | 96.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 92.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 50c | 88.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 49c | 88.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 49c | 88.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 52c | 87.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 65c | 84.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…c6fdbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 51c | 78.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 78.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 77.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 33c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 75.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…5a54backed Yes | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 59c | 66.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 47c | 63.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 62.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 60.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 80c | 60.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 57.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 53.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 52.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 60c | 51.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 51.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 48c | 50.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 52c | 49.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 26c | 48.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 37c | 47.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.