TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes21c2,191$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.728025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c93…436abacked Yes44c2,182$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.072119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-64%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes24c1,685$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.99337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c1,206$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.2210043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes6c1,110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes12c1,018$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3612816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes12c839.51$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c828.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9114521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed No64c761.3$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.55922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c563.21$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.1628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c542.31$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1835258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c481.66$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4512055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No57c401.79$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.996241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed No71c372.75$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.752035%7 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c350.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0932639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes39c301.38$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes51c301.36$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3114842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No63c270.86$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2218445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c255.19$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5240648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c254.56$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1512640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No58c243.88$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.912055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c219.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No79c201.57$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c201.36$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8732354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.718743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No65c180.69$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.414553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes62c179.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.456448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes21c179.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.576330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes61c156.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.238236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80d…acd7backed Yes39c154.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4213646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes33c149.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.88736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes33c149.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes31c145.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0111839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked No62c145.16$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No72c145.08$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1939231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes20c143.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.267517.3%13 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No62c141.63$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.115253.8%28 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Yes32c141.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c138.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes18c135.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5622111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c127.74$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5715036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No61c126.08$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6616755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c122.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-56.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes23c108$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5310320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes38c100.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3913348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…56b7backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No50c99.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1113357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes38c98.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2610243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No57c95.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3115056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c92.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8918035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes22c91.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.284932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c91.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.531,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed Yes25c86.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.971421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No71c81.13$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.414979.6%39 W · 10 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No62c79.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2216450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No61c76.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.021250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes27c76.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.478739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c76.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3123044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes18c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes42c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.55646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes23c73.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.036224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No71c71.92$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6716254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No78c70.31$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.595855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid+4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x321e…b542backed Yes51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa38…474fbacked No54c69.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes25c66.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No60c64.23$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6314753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No79c64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4413243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes21c60.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9390%0 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9416738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c56.59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9934354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c54.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.598856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2613…08e3backed Yes41c54.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No70c54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.216051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6bf…3387backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No42c51.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3516051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes29c51.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.58838.6%34 W · 54 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes36c49.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6618638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1963…4a4cbacked No78c48.07$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes32c47.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No58c47.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9514954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c46.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No77c46.73$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.777842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c46.72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.347951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c45.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3814445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.952729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1585…025abacked Yes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.081315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c44.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed Yes47c42.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes49c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.217248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.