World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0495c388d9107c5f16f238fd8e91a50ad5cb6d668b1aa16eadac18cd6ae2ab8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,191$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.72 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 44c | 2,182$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 24c | 1,685$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.9 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,206$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.22 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 1,018$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 839.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 828.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 64c | 761.3$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 563.21$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.16 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 542.31$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.18 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 481.66$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 401.79$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed No | 71c | 372.75$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 350.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 39c | 301.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 51c | 301.36$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 270.86$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 255.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 254.56$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 58c | 243.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 219.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 201.57$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 201.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 180.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 62c | 179.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 179.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 156.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 39c | 154.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 33c | 149.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 145.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 145.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 143.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 141.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 32c | 141.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 138.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 135.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 127.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 126.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 122.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 100.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 50c | 99.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 98.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 95.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 92.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 91.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 91.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 25c | 86.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 81.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 79.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 61c | 76.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 76.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 76.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 23c | 73.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 71.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 70.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…b542backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa38…474fbacked No | 54c | 69.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 25c | 66.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 64.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 21c | 60.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 56.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 41c | 54.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…3387backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 51.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 51.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 49.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked No | 78c | 48.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 32c | 47.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 46.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 46.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 46.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 45.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 44.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.