Boxing · resolved market
Zuffa Boxing 9: Francis vs. Sosa (Catchweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfab213df5b5b054a38d2b48c57949ca6c8df838b5360fc969109cb98f2909f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sosaof Francis, Sosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Francis | 56c | 846.95$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Sosa | 43c | 227.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Sosa | 44c | 172.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Sosa | 79c | 149.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Sosa | 42c | 141.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Francis | 53c | 104.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Francis | 54c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Sosa | 46c | 86.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…e883backed Francis | 80c | 85.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Francis | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…8bfabacked Francis | 26c | 69.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…d220backed Francis | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Sosa | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Sosa | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Francis | 56c | 49.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Francis | 56c | 48.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Francis | 55c | 48.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked Francis | 49c | 45.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Francis | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Francis | 39c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Francis | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Francis | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked Francis | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Francis | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…fb48backed Francis | 54c | 24.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…36d3backed Sosa | 50c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3624…9a2ebacked Francis | 50c | 24.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Francis | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…7a46backed Sosa | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…5fabbacked Francis | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…b298backed Sosa | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…b3dcbacked Francis | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Francis | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Francis | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Francis | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Francis | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Francis | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Francis | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Francis | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Francis | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Francis | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Francis | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.