MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd00159753a36f434665ca72e581eac241055182b959f03ddbce69f56537131dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 1,527$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 48c | 485.42$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 52c | 189.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…78adbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 53c | 79.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…6c9fbacked Over | 51c | 76.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 45c | 74.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 50c | 64.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 57.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 46c | 51.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed Under | 49c | 34.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 54c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Over | 46c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 50c | 26.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 26.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 62c | 17.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.