MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eb5c4139b87d7a3a64ecdfc7ea2ef797c13a28fad851daa35ce55b370112028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Minnesota Twins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 2,604$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.74 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed New York Mets | 63c | 2,102$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.84 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked New York Mets | 63c | 1,780$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.5 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 1,156$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.11 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 739.66$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.68 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 580.58$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.81 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 26c | 573.15$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 77c | 559.89$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 447.67$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.68 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 379.69$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed New York Mets | 64c | 305.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets | 62c | 298.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 64c | 260.08$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 246$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets | 63c | 231.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 62c | 225.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 61c | 225$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked New York Mets | 64c | 221.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…0440backed New York Mets | 63c | 221.57$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d0…7a7abacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 218.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 198.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked New York Mets | 70c | 175.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 64c | 160.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 65c | 158.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 134.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets | 63c | 131.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 129.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed New York Mets | 63c | 124.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…56d1backed New York Mets | 61c | 116.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked New York Mets | 62c | 107.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa395…e703backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 98.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked New York Mets | 63c | 93.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Minnesota Twins | 15c | 90.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 67.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed New York Mets | 63c | 63.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 58.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Mets | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Minnesota Twins | 22c | 48.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 48.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Minnesota Twins | 22c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Minnesota Twins | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 45.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 43.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 40.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed New York Mets | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 38.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed New York Mets | 64c | 38.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed New York Mets | 63c | 33.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 65c | 32.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed New York Mets | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 30.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked New York Mets | 63c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked New York Mets | 63c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked New York Mets | 65c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed New York Mets | 70c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.