MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df84922267c3b2ccd13fa96e43897ef01c047f40cd7d612cdd54d4660d99cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 49c | 20,296$9,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,944.91 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 51c | 15,028$7,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,363.62 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 47c | 3,280$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.46 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 2,914$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.53 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Over | 51c | 2,093$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.79 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,191$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 53c | 1,077$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.23 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 1,021$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 1,003$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.71 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 52c | 980.91$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.84 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 919$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 900.37$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.17 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 51c | 666.8$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.07 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 51c | 551.22$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 54c | 543.82$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 517.51$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 51c | 262.12$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 51c | 189.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 52c | 186.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 184.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 34c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 146$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 141.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 116.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 49c | 88.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 88.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 42c | 74.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Under | 49c | 74.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 69c | 66.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 49c | 63.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 59.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 42.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 48c | 40.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 37.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 52c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.