NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd02870a79411385f2ddf4c82156911eb12164c4156d8d74df3372478466ac564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 4,742$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.28 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 53c | 4,500$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.29 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 4,231$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.99 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 2,321$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.93 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 26c | 1,175$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,108$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.76 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 800$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 598.04$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.17 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 61c | 242.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 75c | 232.24$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 47c | 215.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Under | 54c | 213$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 209.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 74c | 176.88$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 110.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…54d1backed Under | 54c | 91.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 40c | 80.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 61.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…caeabacked Over | 50c | 40.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 47c | 26.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 76c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 53c | 21.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. DucksDucks won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.