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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,771 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes0c4,702$13 inLost-$13.0247436.7%174 W · 300 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes2c1,339$32 inLost-$32.1130824.4%75 W · 233 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes4c1,081$47 inLost-$46.939712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes9c843.51$72 inLost-$72.2261122.7%139 W · 472 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes11c778.18$89 inLost-$88.561,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c697.98$82 inLost-$82.083,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes7c693.78$47 inLost-$47.2842630.3%129 W · 297 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes8c621.34$49 inLost-$48.5373138.7%283 W · 448 L+36.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes6c559.99$34 inLost-$33.721423.8%51 W · 163 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes5c515.99$28 inLost-$28.2849332.9%162 W · 331 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes4c405.66$17 inLost-$17.1812,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes3c400$12 inLost-$125812.1%7 W · 51 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6af…d575backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f2…c000backed Yes28c275.86$77 inLost-$77.242420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd394…7e90backed Yes4c274.55$11 inLost-$10.89649.4%6 W · 58 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes15c248$37 inLost-$37.365,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes5c208.05$11 inLost-$11.323237.5%87 W · 145 L+30.6wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+79.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes6c181.94$11 inLost-$10.711,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes12c160$19 inLost-$19.288124.1%212 W · 669 L-40.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes9c136.98$12 inLost-$1254238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes11c126$14 inLost-$13.8658053.4%310 W · 270 L-26.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes18c100$18 inLost-$185911.9%7 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes21c86.95$18 inLost-$18.2657158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes25c81.9$20 inLost-$20.4880247.3%379 W · 423 L-29.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes14c80$11 inLost-$11.231657.6%182 W · 134 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c76.84$60 inWon+$16.733,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No75c75.96$57 inWon+$19.244,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70a…139ebacked Yes21c65.66$14 inLost-$13.7930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes19c60$11 inLost-$11.211925.2%30 W · 89 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No75c52.03$39 inWon+$13.0135864%229 W · 129 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes20c49.99$10 inLost-$10.2510730.8%33 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c48.33$34 inWon+$149,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No77c33$25 inWon+$7.7341274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No77c32$25 inWon+$7.261,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c30.71$24 inWon+$7.144,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c30$23 inWon+$7.56,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No72c27$19 inWon+$7.568061.3%49 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No72c20$14 inWon+$5.694162.3%586 W · 355 L-24.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…b1f2backed No76c19.74$15 inWon+$4.746361.9%39 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No78c19.69$15 inWon+$4.3370675.5%533 W · 173 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed No76c19.54$15 inWon+$4.6910170.3%71 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No80c19$15 inWon+$3.810,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.