Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe02c554e98d3f2d4575ec9d74cca927147adc31ac37fe9739a71c8c389dedcf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 1,595$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.53 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 21c | 1,147$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 55c | 871.53$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.04 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 43c | 767.1$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.25 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 19c | 664.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 24c | 588.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 576.09$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 10c | 518.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 32c | 500$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 60c | 439.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 40c | 404.72$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 58c | 354.38$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 304.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 301.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 301.12$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 15c | 300.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 251.36$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 17c | 250.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…b468backed Yes | 6c | 239.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 225.66$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 223.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked Yes | 41c | 219.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 205$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 28c | 199.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 63c | 180.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 61c | 179$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 163$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 33c | 160.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 33c | 153.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 151.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 149.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 149.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 147.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 14c | 142.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 25c | 133.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 130.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 129$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 127.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…cacdbacked Yes | 19c | 125.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 12c | 121$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 36c | 119.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…6155backed No | 78c | 102.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 101.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…b9bcbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 96.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 96.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 49c | 93.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 89.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 87.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 42c | 87.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 86.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 80c | 83.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 75.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 412 | 26.5%109 W · 303 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…3ac9backed Yes | 20c | 73.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 22c | 71.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 311 | 32.2%100 W · 211 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 70.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 70.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…c6cabacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Yes | 29c | 69.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 66.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 65.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 46c | 65.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 74c | 64.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 64.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 77c | 64.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 24c | 63.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…f78dbacked Yes | 50c | 62.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 31c | 57.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 239 | 33.5%80 W · 159 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 54.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 54.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 52.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 51.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 51.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 424 | 52.8%224 W · 200 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…92d3backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…d52fbacked Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 69c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 42.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.