Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e364f107f62cff9aa7e2a92308ed32358fed9103e02b9aff5d6c1c54cf5eaa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 75c | 2,584$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.54 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 35c | 1,737$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.46 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 1,612$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.75 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 29c | 1,129$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.46 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 1,027$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.22 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 646.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 34c | 460.72$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 58c | 446$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 71c | 409.52$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 39c | 405$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.24 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 53c | 331.93$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 74c | 304.3$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 65c | 299.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 72c | 276.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…b9bcbacked No | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 6c | 210.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 28c | 205.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 80 | 18.8%15 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 24c | 202$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…e611backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked No | 13c | 181$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 363 | 26.4%96 W · 267 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 172.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 15c | 169.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 64c | 166.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 241 | 60.2%145 W · 96 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 165.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 164.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 33c | 149.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 64c | 148.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 148.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 146.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 70c | 145.07$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…194bbacked Yes | 73c | 136.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…fd46backed Yes | 75c | 133.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 78c | 128.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 22c | 120.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 76c | 118.73$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 116.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 28c | 116.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 70c | 107.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 75c | 100.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 210 | 31%65 W · 145 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 24c | 99.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed No | 40c | 99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 60c | 98.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 22c | 96.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…1b31backed No | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 93.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 92.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 30c | 88.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 61c | 85.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 83.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 71c | 81.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 62c | 76.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 71.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…6b23backed Yes | 76c | 66.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 64.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 56c | 62.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 62.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 21c | 60.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 80c | 58.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…3aaebacked Yes | 35c | 57.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 55.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 55.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 54.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 72c | 53.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 28c | 53.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 76c | 52.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 29c | 51.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 64c | 51.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 21c | 50.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…d52fbacked Yes | 39c | 47.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 27c | 47.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 37c | 44.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 235 | 54%127 W · 108 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdb…c910backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…4713backed Yes | 76c | 39.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 45c | 39.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 34.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.