MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd06d10e12653cee96ba43006b4cb0022cbcaa36031514269e84c29dcdc6bf7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 16,824$11,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,452.44 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 7,736$4,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.03 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 7,596$4,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.68 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…d1c4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 5,681$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 5,322$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.68 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 4,900$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 4,420$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 3,650$2,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 2,777$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.72 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 2,323$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.76 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 2,235$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 1,666$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.42 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aabbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 1,666$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.42 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 1,423$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.07 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,414$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.32 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,290$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.22 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 947.37$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 868.63$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.08 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 762$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.7 | 255 | 48.6%124 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 595$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…a584backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 335$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 295$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 260.96$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 253.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3431…1a4ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 53.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 45.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 43.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 35.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…517dbacked Seattle Mariners | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 28.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Mariners vs. Blue JaysMariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.