MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e5e4d789cf8abb97bf1dece2ad306c6550e8f1ab633f32590570fee3e5a189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 13,674$7,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,297.7 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 47c | 10,000$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,249.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 5,089$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 4,799$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.68 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 44c | 4,499$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.47 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 52c | 3,738$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.25 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 45c | 2,717$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.37 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 56c | 2,555$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.8 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 2,517$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.16 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aabbbacked Over | 48c | 2,111$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.71 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 52c | 2,077$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Under | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 1,365$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.39 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 795.92$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.92 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 574.26$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.32 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 47c | 440$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 255 | 48.6%124 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 45c | 418.18$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Under | 10c | 410$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 373.31$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.57 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…f2efbacked Over | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 15c | 330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Over | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Under | 56c | 157$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 54c | 105.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 43c | 67.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Under | 56c | 55.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 48c | 51.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Mariners vs. Blue JaysMariners won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.