Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd07b7ba994fbf2713c3cd80827c70b6de1babb87694ecc9914c95d94309e896a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 79c | 8,088$6,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 4,084$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.58 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 78c | 2,307$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.5 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 22c | 2,049$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.77 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,887$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.51 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,789$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.25 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 23c | 869$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 651.21$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.27 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 78c | 609.52$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 78c | 469$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 80c | 445.72$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…7337backed Yes | 24c | 424.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 80c | 412.56$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 405.66$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.77 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 23c | 402.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 62c | 308.51$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 38c | 261.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 71c | 257.69$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Yes | 41c | 240.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 22c | 212$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 170.34$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 31c | 170.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 169.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 38c | 158.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 22c | 155.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 79c | 154.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 21c | 137.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 56c | 118$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes | 22c | 106.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 104.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 25c | 95.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 90.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 78.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 35c | 78.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 17c | 74.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 72.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 78c | 70.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Yes | 21c | 65.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 78c | 55.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 73c | 46.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 77c | 45.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 78c | 45.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 32.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 32.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 66c | 24.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed No | 79c | 22.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 16.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?this page
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-22?Yes won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.